22–24 Mar 2021
University of Zagreb Faculty of Civil Engineering, Zagreb, Croatia
Europe/Zagreb timezone

2021 SHAKEOUT SCENARIO FOR QUEBEC CITY, CANADA

Not scheduled
20m
VP (University of Zagreb Faculty of Civil Engineering, Zagreb, Croatia)

VP

University of Zagreb Faculty of Civil Engineering, Zagreb, Croatia

Kačićeva 26 10 000 Zagreb
Full paper - scientific Earthquake Risk Mitigation Policies and Management

Speaker

Miroslav Nastev (Geological Survey of Canada)

Description

A ShakeOut exercise was planned to help understand potential impacts and prepare for a large earthquake in the Quebec City region, Canada. Scientific and technical knowledge was provided as the basis for a simple “drop, cover, hold on” procedure at home, school or workplace. More elaborated table top emergency exercises will also be developed for decision making by government departments and agencies. Evaluation of negative impacts was conducted for a ‘what-if’ M6.5 scenario earthquake with an epicentral distance of about 15 km from the Old downtown and a depth of 10 km. This hypothetical scenario was arbitrarily assigned a date, February 8th, when the outside temperature drops below -10 oC, and time, 3:00 pm, when most people are at school or work. Physical damage and social and economic losses were predicted using the ER2 user-friendly risk assessment tool. The analyses were run for site specific inventory of structural types of buildings and their occupancies, microzonation maps and ground motion maps for peak ground acceleration and spectral accelerations at periods of 0.3 and 1.0 seconds. The average number of injuries requiring medical care was estimated at more than 2,800 with 50 fatalities. The respective direct economic loss due to structural, non-structural and content damage to buildings was about $4.2B with more than 4,000 heavily damaged red-tagged buildings. Potential permanent ground displacements and damage to critical infrastructures were approximated and described qualitatively. A brief narrative of the disaster scenario is given at the end to summarize the activities, actions, decisions and solutions by the Crisis Management Team.

Keywords ShakeOut drill, scenario earthquake, risk assessment, informed decision making
DOI https://doi.org/10.5592/CO/1CroCEE.2021.100

Primary author

Miroslav Nastev (Geological Survey of Canada)

Presentation materials