1st Croatian Conference on Earthquake Engineering 1CroCEE 2021

The physics-based assessment of seismic risk and its unbiased perception in the community is necessary to enhance community seismic resilience. As a step towards this objective, a seismic stress test of building stock in Slovenia was performed last year. The stress test outcome was negative, which was communicated to the Ministry by means of a preliminary seismic performance certificate of building stock at the national level. The seismic stress showed that the seismic risk in Slovenia is too high. About 20% of citizens live in buildings for which the seismic risk expressed by median estimates of time-based risk measures is beyond the acceptable long-term risk. The real estate value of these buildings is estimated at 18 billion euros. Consequences of a major earthquake (Mw=6.4) close to Ljubljana were simulated informatively by the physics-based method. It was realised for the first time in Slovenia that such an earthquake would likely cause a national catastrophe. The median number of fatalities and direct losses due to damaged building stock was estimated, respectively, to about 600 and 10.5 billion euros, which is more than 20% of Slovenia gross domestic product. It was recommended that seismic resilience in Slovenia is enhanced in two phases: the preparatory and implementation phase. The former phase also foresees seismic performance certificates to improve risk communication and risk management enabled by the novel grading system.